(The Yorkshire Analysis) — As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) foresees a robust resurgence in the US housing market in 2024, expectations soar high after a tumultuous period marked by a sharp downturn in home sales.

The promising outlook is attributed to an anticipated decline in mortgage rates, beckoning buyers back to the market after a subdued period.

The National Housing Landscape: A Glance at 2023

The recent report from the NAR projects a notable 18% decline in home sales in 2023, marking one of the most significant plunges in over 15 years.

National Association of Realtors
National Association of Realtors

The stark drop, caused primarily by soaring mortgage rates touching nearly 7.8%, crippled prospective buyers, leaving fewer than four million houses changing hands, reminiscent of the market scenario before the financial recovery in 2010.

Anticipated 2024 Resurgence

However, 2024 brings a promising turnaround, with a forecasted tumble in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to an average of 6.3%.

National Association of Realtors
National Association of Realtors

The NAR envisions a favorable scenario following an expected series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, anticipating a notable uptick in demand for housing.

Top 10 Metropolitan Areas Poised for Growth in 2024

Drawing from 10 essential factors analyzed in the 100 largest US markets, including home price increases, affordability for renters-turned-buyers, and the potential resurgence of buyers if mortgage rates drop, the NAR identified 10 metropolitan areas ripe for an imminent housing market explosion.

Insights into Each Market And Current Inventory:

National Association of Realtors
National Association of Realtors

1. Austin, Texas

2023 home price growth: -7.7%
– Share of renters able to buy: 18.9%
– Potential returning buyers with lower mortgage rates: 5.1%
– Anticipated growth driven by high-earning Millennials and returning buyers, promising a surge in housing market activity.

2. Dallas, Texas

– 2023 home price growth: 1.9%
– Share of renters able to buy: 21.5%
– Potential returning buyers with lower mortgage rates: 4.9%
– Boasting a robust job market, Dallas anticipates increased housing activity as mortgage rates decline.

3. Dayton, Ohio

– 2023 home price growth: 9.1%
– Share of renters able to buy: 30.6%
– Potential returning buyers with lower mortgage rates: 4.7%
– Dayton presents an affordable market, offering options for first-time buyers, alongside a strong job market.

4. Durham/Chapel Hill, North Carolina

– 2023 home price growth: 2.6%
– Share of renters able to buy: 18.8%
– Potential returning buyers with lower mortgage rates: 5.6%
– Witnessing a notable share of returning buyers, Durham/Chapel Hill stands out amidst significant wage growth.

5. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

– 2023 home price growth: 8.5%
– Share of renters able to buy: 32.1%
– Potential returning buyers with lower mortgage rates: 5.3%
– Attracting high-earner renters and potential inventory increase, Harrisburg gears up for further growth.

6. Houston, Texas

– 2023 home price growth: 3.7%
– Share of renters able to buy: 23.8%
– Potential returning buyers with lower mortgage rates: 4.3%
– Strong job and wage growth bolster Houston’s promising market activity.

7. Nashville, Tennessee

– 2023 home price growth: 0.7%
– Share of renters able to buy: 13.8%
– Potential returning buyers with lower mortgage rates: 4.6%
– Anticipated resurgence in ‘returning’ buyers, yet facing a housing shortage for first-time buyers.

8. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

– 2023 home price growth: 4.6%
– Share of renters able to buy: 21.5%
– Potential returning buyers with lower mortgage rates: 4.7%
– Expected boost due to pent-up demand as rate lock-in effect eases, offering ample affordable options.

9. Portland, Maine

– 2023 home price growth: 12.3%
– Share of renters able to buy: 20.2%
– Potential returning buyers with lower mortgage rates: 4.9%
– High-earning Millennial renters’ influx and potential increased inventory elevate Portland’s market outlook.

10. Washington, DC; Arlington/Alexandria, Virginia

– 2023 home price growth: 3.4%
– Share of renters able to buy: 15.8%
– Potential returning buyers with lower mortgage rates: 4.8%
– Expected market surge following declining remote work trends, offering budget-friendly listings for first-time buyers.

With a comprehensive view of these promising markets, it’s evident that these metropolitan areas are primed to seize the opportunities arising from the housing market resurgence projected in 2024.


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